Before the 2029-30 season · Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 202
Before the 2029-30 season is priced at 85¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 202.
Price history
85¢ current
+83¢Contract brief
If LeBron James announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2029-30 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before the 2029-30 season
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Before the 2029-30 season 86¢
Range
60¢-86¢
Family volume
$27
Identifier
KXNBARETIRE-LJAMES23-2930
Jun 27, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
10¢
Reported volume
$102
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 202
Closes
Nov 15, 2029
Family volume
$27
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If LeBron James announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2029-30 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 15, 2029
Identifier
KXNBARETIRE-LJAMES23-2930
Event family
Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 202.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$27
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before the 2029-30 season 86¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 85% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.