Lee Chang-dong to win Venice Film Festival
Lee Chang-dong is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26.
Price history
7¢ current
Contract brief
If Lee Chang-dong wins the Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director at the 83rd Venice Festival , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Lee Chang-dong
Rank
#3 of 8
Leader
Martin McDonagh 19¢
Range
4¢-19¢
Family volume
$100
Identifier
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-LEE
Aug 9, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$44
Family rank
#3 of 8
8 outcomes · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Family volume
$100
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lee Chang-dong wins the Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director at the 83rd Venice Festival , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Identifier
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-LEE
Event family
KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$100
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Martin McDonagh 19¢
Current share
0%
Martin McDonagh
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-MART
Werner Herzog
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-WER
Danny Boyle
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-DAN
Lee Chang-dong
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-LEE
Lance Oppenheim
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-LAN
Hirozaku Koreeda
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-HIR
Shinya Tsukamoto
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-SHI
Tie
kalshi · KXVFILMFESTIVAL-SILV26-TIE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.