Likud win above 32 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election
Above 32 is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 7 inside Will Likud win above.
Price history
7¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Likud has won above 32 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 32
Rank
#6 of 7
Leader
Above 17 81¢
Range
1¢-81¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A32
Sep 22, 2026, 6:35 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#6 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Likud win above
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Likud has won above 32 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
Identifier
KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A32
Event family
Will Likud win above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Above 17 81¢
Current share
—
Above 17
kalshi · KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A17
Above 20
kalshi · KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A20
Above 23
kalshi · KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A23
Above 26
kalshi · KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A26
Above 29
kalshi · KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A29
Above 32
kalshi · KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A32
Above 35
kalshi · KXLIKUDCOUNT-26OCT27-A35
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.