Lionel Messi · KXSOCCERRETIRE-27JUL01
Lionel Messi is priced at 60¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 98¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside KXSOCCERRETIRE-27JUL01.
Price history
60¢ current
Contract brief
If Lionel Messi announces his retirement from soccer (must retire from all professional play including domestic and international) before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Lionel Messi
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Cristiano Ronaldo 98¢
Range
60¢-98¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSOCCERRETIRE-27JUL01-LMES
Sep 22, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
98¢
Reported volume
$30
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · KXSOCCERRETIRE-27JUL01
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lionel Messi announces his retirement from soccer (must retire from all professional play including domestic and international) before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
Identifier
KXSOCCERRETIRE-27JUL01-LMES
Event family
KXSOCCERRETIRE-27JUL01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Cristiano Ronaldo 98¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.