Mathilde Arcel · KXGGNOM-DACTR26
Mathilde Arcel is priced at 9¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 10 inside KXGGNOM-DACTR26.
Price history
9¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Mathilde Arcel is on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mathilde Arcel
Rank
#10 of 10
Leader
Sandra Hüller 55¢
Range
7¢-55¢
Family volume
$619
Identifier
KXGGNOM-DACTR26-MARC
Sep 23, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
11¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#10 of 10
10 outcomes · KXGGNOM-DACTR26
Closes
Dec 8, 2027
Family volume
$619
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Mathilde Arcel is on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 8, 2027
Identifier
KXGGNOM-DACTR26-MARC
Event family
KXGGNOM-DACTR26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$619
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Sandra Hüller 55¢
Current share
0%
Sandra Hüller
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-SHUL
Ruth Madeley
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-RMAD
Virginie Efira
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-VEIF
Renate Reinsve
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-RREI
Léa Seydoux
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-LSEY
Jeon Do-yeon
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-JDOY
Inde Navarrette
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-INAV
Daisy Edgar-Jones
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-DEDG
Carrie Coon
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-CCOO
Mathilde Arcel
kalshi · KXGGNOM-DACTR26-MARC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.