Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Matt Walsh endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 18, 2026. 119 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Matt Walsh endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4083.8% and 23.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Matt Walsh endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4083.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2042%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Matt Walsh endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026?

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