SimpleFunctions

Megan Fox · KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN

Megan Fox is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN.

Price history

28¢ current

+8¢
20¢30¢
Jul 10, 2026Aug 7, 2026

Contract brief

If Megan Fox goes on Call Her Daddy before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Megan Fox

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

Kendall Jenner 26¢

Range

3¢-26¢

Family volume

$117

Identifier

KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-MEG

Aug 8, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 21m ago

Implied probability

28¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 8, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 21m ago

Bid

17¢

Ask

26¢

Spread

Reported volume

$22

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$117

Orderbook snapshot

17 / 26¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
17¢5
16¢500
9¢1
6¢53
5¢200
AskSize
26¢500
57¢49
58¢73
60¢337
64¢615

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Megan Fox goes on Call Her Daddy before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXPODCASTGUESTCALLHERDADDY-27JAN-MEG

SF Signal
SF Index
608.67
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1217.3%

IY (No)

51.1%

Adj IY

609%

CRI

5

Overround

3.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1217.3%
51.1%
Adj IY
609%
5
Overround
3.4%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.