What is the current probability for "Will Metallica be a Headliner at Lollapalooza Chicago 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 246 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Metallica be a Headliner at Lollapalooza Chicago 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3566.7% and 6.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Metallica be a Headliner at Lollapalooza Chicago 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Metallica be a Headliner at Lollapalooza Chicago 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Metallica be a Headliner at Lollapalooza Chicago 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4570% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 3¢ price significantly undervalues Metallica's headlining probability given their touring history and festival appeal.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $6,794.95·Closes Dec 31, 2026·246d remaining

KXROLEATEVENTLOLLA-26DEC31-MET

7-day price10 snapshots · 5 regime

6¢4¢ current

Apr 103¢Apr 17

Analysis

12d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4570% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 3¢ price significantly undervalues Metallica's headlining probability given their touring history and festival appeal. The $25 daily volume against $6.7k open interest indicates severe illiquidity, making the tight 3¢ spread potentially misleading—actual execution could face slippage. With 258 days to resolution and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero probability despite Metallica's status as a legacy act that regularly headlines major festivals, presenting a potential value opportunity for contrarian bettors.

Resolution rules

If Metallica is the Headliner at Lollapalooza Chicago 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3566.7%

IY (No) 6.2%

Adj IY 1783%

CRI 24

Overround 0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3566.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1783%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Computed

4/29/2026, 2:30:24 PM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 2:23:26 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXROLEATEVENTLOLLA-26DEC31-MET yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →