Before July 1, 2026 · Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before
Before July 1, 2026 is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before.
Price history
5¢ current
−30¢Contract brief
If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before July 1, 2026
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Before October 1, 2026 36¢
Range
2¢-36¢
Family volume
$219
Identifier
KXMEXCUBOIL-26-JUL
Jun 25, 2026, 8:19 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$190
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$219
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If at least one export shipment of crude oil or refined petroleum products from Petróleos Mexicanos (“Pemex”) to Cuba is confirmed to have occurred before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXMEXCUBOIL-26-JUL
Event family
Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$219
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before October 1, 2026 36¢
Current share
87%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.