Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Mike Pieciak be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and only $817 in open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and only $817 in open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—183.7% for Yes versus 22.7% for No—suggest the market is pricing in substantial tail risk, though the low liquidity undermines confidence in that signal. With 566 days until expiration and minimal price movement over the past week (25¢ to 26¢), this appears to be a dormant market awaiting either a major political development or increased trader interest.
Also on polymarket at 28¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If Mike Pieciak wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Vermont Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVVTNOMD-26-MPIE yes 100