Moderate Party receive at least 17% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election
At least 17% is priced at 63¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 43¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will Moderate Party receive at least.
Price history
63¢ current
+58¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Moderate Party in the 2026 Swedish general election is 17% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 17%
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
At least 13% 88¢
Range
7¢-88¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-17
Aug 25, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
41¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
43¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Moderate Party receive at least
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
41 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Moderate Party in the 2026 Swedish general election is 17% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-17
Event family
Will Moderate Party receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
At least 13% 88¢
Current share
—
At least 13%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-13
At least 15%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-15
At least 16%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-16
At least 17%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-17
At least 18%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-18
At least 19%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-19
At least 21%
kalshi · KXVOTESWEDEN-26SEP13MODERATE-21
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 63% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.