Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 above 2,140,000 head
Above 2,140,000 head is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 21¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
18¢ current
−23¢Contract brief
If USDA NASS reports that Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 2,140,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 2,140,000 head
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMTCATTLE-27JAN31-T2140000
Aug 24, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
21¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
21 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If USDA NASS reports that Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 2,140,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
Identifier
KXMTCATTLE-27JAN31-T2140000
Event family
KXMTCATTLE-27JAN31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Above 2,140,000 head 21¢
Current share
—
Above 2,140,000 head
kalshi · KXMTCATTLE-27JAN31-T2140000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.