Naomi Osaka · KXWTA-26WIM
Naomi Osaka is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KXWTA-26WIM.
Price history
3¢ current
−16¢Contract brief
If Naomi Osaka wins the 2026 Wimbledon Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Naomi Osaka
Rank
#9 of 16
Leader
Aryna Sabalenka 22¢
Range
1¢-22¢
Family volume
$11K
Identifier
KXWTA-26WIM-OSA
Jun 22, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$432
Family rank
#9 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWTA-26WIM
Closes
Jul 25, 2026
Family volume
$11K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Naomi Osaka wins the 2026 Wimbledon Women's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 25, 2026
Identifier
KXWTA-26WIM-OSA
Event family
KXWTA-26WIM.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$11K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Aryna Sabalenka 22¢
Current share
4%
Aryna Sabalenka
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-SAB
Mirra Andreeva
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-AND
Iga Swiatek
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-SWI
Elena Rybakina
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-RYB
Jessica Pegula
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-PEG
Amanda Anisimova
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-ANI
Barbora Krejcikova
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-KRE
Iva Jovic
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-JOV
Naomi Osaka
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-OSA
Elina Svitolina
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-SVI
Serena Williams
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-WIL
Madison Keys
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-KEY
Victoria Mboko
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-MBO
Coco Gauff
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-GAU
Emma Navarro
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-NAV
Maja Chwalinska
kalshi · KXWTA-26WIM-CHW
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.