Nick Begich receive at least 55% of the popular vote in the Alaska at-large congressional district primary
At least 55% is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 6 inside Will Nick Begich receive at least.
Price history
5¢ current
−13¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Nick Begich in the Alaska at-large congressional district primary is 55% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 55%
Rank
#4 of 6
Leader
At least 35% 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$4
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-55
Aug 21, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
12¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Nick Begich receive at least
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$4
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Nick Begich in the Alaska at-large congressional district primary is 55% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-55
Event family
Will Nick Begich receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 35% 99¢
Current share
0%
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-35
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-40
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-45
At least 55%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-55
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-50
At least 60%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-AKPRIMARY26MAY19NBEG-60
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.