Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 be at or below $15/MTok in 2026
$15/MTok or below is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 be at or below $.
Price history
13¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If the Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $15 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
$15/MTok or below
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
$15/MTok or below 2¢
Range
1¢-2¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXOPUS48OY-27-NA-15
Sep 22, 2026, 5:03 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 be at or below $
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 on https://claude.com/pricing#api is at or below $15 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Identifier
KXOPUS48OY-27-NA-15
Event family
Will Output Token Price of Claude Opus 4.8 be at or below $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
$15/MTok or below 2¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.