Pat McFadden · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY
Pat McFadden is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 6 inside KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY.
Price history
3¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Pat McFadden leaves as Work and Pensions Secretary before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Pat McFadden
Rank
#5 of 6
Leader
David Lammy 3¢
Range
2¢-3¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-PMCF
Jun 25, 2026, 2:29 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$611
Family rank
#5 of 6
6 outcomes · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Pat McFadden leaves as Work and Pensions Secretary before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-PMCF
Event family
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
David Lammy 3¢
Current share
24%
David Lammy
kalshi · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-DLAM
Jonathan Reynolds
kalshi · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-JREY
Shabana Mahmood
kalshi · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-SMAH
Rachel Reeves
kalshi · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-RREE
Pat McFadden
kalshi · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-PMCF
Ed Miliband
kalshi · KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-EMIL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.