Will Rand Paul vote for a motion to invoke cloture on the SAVE America Act?

The market is pricing in only a 13% chance of Paul voting for cloture on the SAVE America Act, with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 14,468% on the Yes side—a classic sign of extreme illiquidity and low conviction pricing on a thin $3,922 open interest. With just 12 days to expiry and a 5-cent spread, this appears to be a low-volume niche market where the price may not reflect true probability; the 2,079% realized volatility and 0.8 information arrivals per hour suggest active repricing around legislative developments. Given Paul's libertarian voting record and typical skepticism of spending bills, the 13-cent price seems plausible on fundamentals, but traders should be cautious of the cliff risk (5/10) and wide bid-ask dynamics in such illiquid conditions.

Resolution rules

If Rand Paul votes for a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to or passage of the SAVE America Act in the Senate before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade