Randy Feenstra receive between 35% and 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary
35% - 40% is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will Randy Feenstra receive.
Price history
99¢ current
+98¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Randy Feenstra in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary is 35% to 39.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
35% - 40%
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
35% - 40% 96¢
Range
1¢-96¢
Family volume
$228
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-37
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$119
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Randy Feenstra receive
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$228
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Randy Feenstra in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary is 35% to 39.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-37
Event family
Will Randy Feenstra receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$228
Outcomes
8
Highest price
35% - 40% 96¢
Current share
52%
35% - 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-37
45% - 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-47
20% - 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-22
40% - 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-42
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-75
Below 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-10
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-27
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KXGOVIANOMR26RFEERFEE-32
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.