SimpleFunctions

Randy Fine receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the FL-06 Republican primary

At least 70% is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 9 inside Will Randy Fine receive at least.

Price history

65¢ current

+62¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Aug 14, 2026Aug 17, 2026

Contract brief

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Randy Fine in the FL-06 Republican primary is 70% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

At least 70%

Rank

#7 of 9

Leader

At least 40% 95¢

Range

24¢-95¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26RFIN-70

Aug 17, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 2h ago

Implied probability

65¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 17, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 2h ago

Bid

60¢

Ask

66¢

Spread

24h volume

$622

Family rank

#7 of 9

9 outcomes · Will Randy Fine receive at least

Closes

Aug 18, 2027

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

60 / 66¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
60¢200
22¢165
21¢100
18¢70
12¢1.5K
AskSize
66¢2
67¢200
80¢100
81¢130
87¢137

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Randy Fine in the FL-06 Republican primary is 70% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 18, 2027

Identifier

KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26RFIN-70

SF Signal
SF Index
149.47
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

66.4%

IY (No)

149.5%

Adj IY

149%

CRI

2

RV

2931%

VR

20.27

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

66.4%
149.5%
Adj IY
149%
2
RV
2931%
VR
20.27
IAR
0.6/h
Overround
5.4%

SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.