Thomas Kean Jr · HOUSENJ7-26
Thomas Kean Jr. is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside HOUSENJ7-26.
Price history
15¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for NJ-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Thomas Kean Jr.
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Rebecca Bennett 78¢
Range
15¢-78¢
Family volume
$53
Identifier
HOUSENJ7-26-R
Aug 18, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · HOUSENJ7-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$53
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for NJ-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
HOUSENJ7-26-R
Event family
HOUSENJ7-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$53
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Rebecca Bennett 78¢
Current share
8%
Rebecca Bennett
kalshi · HOUSENJ7-26-D
Thomas Kean Jr.
kalshi · HOUSENJ7-26-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.