Mike Lawler · HOUSENY17-26
Mike Lawler is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside HOUSENY17-26.
Price history
39¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for NY-17 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mike Lawler
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Cait Conley 60¢
Range
39¢-60¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
HOUSENY17-26-R
Sep 10, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
39¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · HOUSENY17-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
39 / 40¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for NY-17 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
HOUSENY17-26-R
Event family
HOUSENY17-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Cait Conley 60¢
Current share
87%
Cait Conley
kalshi · HOUSENY17-26-D
Mike Lawler
kalshi · HOUSENY17-26-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.