Ryan Mackenzie · HOUSEPA7-26
Ryan Mackenzie is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside HOUSEPA7-26.
Price history
30¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for PA-7 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ryan Mackenzie
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Bob Brooks 69¢
Range
26¢-69¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
HOUSEPA7-26-R
May 29, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$9K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · HOUSEPA7-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for PA-7 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
HOUSEPA7-26-R
Event family
HOUSEPA7-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Bob Brooks 69¢
Current share
—
Bob Brooks
kalshi · HOUSEPA7-26-D
Ryan Mackenzie
kalshi · HOUSEPA7-26-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.