Riley Herbst · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26
Riley Herbst is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26.
Price history
13¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If Riley Herbst finishes in the top 5 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Riley Herbst
Rank
#9 of 16
Leader
Joey Logano 28¢
Range
1¢-28¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-RIHE
Jul 8, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$306
Family rank
#9 of 16
16 outcomes · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26
Closes
Aug 10, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Riley Herbst finishes in the top 5 in the Main Event at the 2026 NASCAR Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 10, 2026
Identifier
KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-RIHE
Event family
KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Joey Logano 28¢
Current share
0%
Joey Logano
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-JOLO
Tyler Reddick
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-TYRE
Chase Elliott
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-CHEL
Carson Hocevar
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-CAHO
Austin Cindric
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-AUCI
Bubba Wallace
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-BUWA
Chase Briscoe
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-CHBR
Ty Gibbs
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-TYGI
Austin Hill
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-AUHI
Riley Herbst
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-RIHE
Alex Bowman
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-ALBO
Zane Smith
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-ZASM
Erik Jones
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-ERJO
Todd Gilliland
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-TOGI
AJ Allmendinger
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-AJAL
John H. Nemechek
kalshi · KXNASCARTOP5-QUAS4AA26-JONE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 13% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.