Rubén Roldán · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24
Rubén Roldán is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If Rubén Roldán is officially declared the winner of America's Got Talent Season 21, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Rubén Roldán
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Nene Royal 34¢
Range
1¢-34¢
Family volume
$30K
Identifier
KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-RUB
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 47m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$818
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$30K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Rubén Roldán is officially declared the winner of America's Got Talent Season 21, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-RUB
Event family
KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Nene Royal 34¢
Current share
3%
Nene Royal
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-NEN
Hundred Fingers
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-HUN
Olivia Befus
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-OLI
Come Here
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-COM
Mackenzie Sol
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-MAC
Royal Lasers
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-ROY
Rubén Roldán
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-RUB
Geno Ploeger
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-GEN
Travis Garland
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-TRA
Veronika Goroshkova
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-VER
Bety
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-BET
Nyjah Music & Zyah Rhythm
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-NYJ
LaRussell
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-LARU
Butter & Grit
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-BUT
Kameron Marshall
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-KAM
Brad & Tracy
kalshi · KXAGTWINNER-26SEP24-BRA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.