Sabrina Carpenter · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27
Sabrina Carpenter is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27.
Price history
5¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Sabrina Carpenter is on Tiny Desk before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Sabrina Carpenter
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Chappell Roan 6¢
Range
3¢-6¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-SAB
Aug 15, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
13¢
Reported volume
$796
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Sabrina Carpenter is on Tiny Desk before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-SAB
Event family
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Chappell Roan 6¢
Current share
—
Chappell Roan
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-CHA
Paul McCartney
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-PAU
Olivia Rodrigo
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-OLI
J. Cole
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-JCO
Sabrina Carpenter
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-SAB
Billie Eilish
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-BIL
Kendrick Lamar
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-KEN
SZA
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-SZA
Tyler, The Creator
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-TYL
Doja Cat
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-DOJ
Ice Spice
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-ICE
Lil Yachty
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-LIL
Bruce Springsteen
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-BRU
André 3000
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-AND
Lauryn Hill
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-LAU
Elton John
kalshi · KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-ELT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.