SimpleFunctions

Sol and Sincere · KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3

Sol and Sincere is priced at 23¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3.

Price history

23¢ current

+21¢
0¢25¢
Jun 8, 2026Jun 21, 2026

Contract brief

If Sol and Sincere finish 3rd in Love Island USA Season 8, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Sol and Sincere

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Sol and Sincere 23¢

Range

1¢-23¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-SOSI

Jun 24, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 27m ago

Implied probability

23¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 24, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 27m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$699

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
8¢200
52¢429
53¢53
99¢51
100¢8

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Sol and Sincere finish 3rd in Love Island USA Season 8, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Identifier

KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-SOSI

SF Signal
SF Index
890.94
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1781.9%

IY (No)

159.0%

Adj IY

891%

CRI

3

Overround

0.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1781.9%
159.0%
Adj IY
891%
3
Overround
0.6%

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.