S&P 500 Total Return Index · KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31
S&P 500 Total Return Index is priced at 76¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 78¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31.
Price history
76¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
S&P 500 Total Return Index
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
S&P 500 Total Return Index 76¢
Range
20¢-76¢
Family volume
$10
Identifier
KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31-INXTR
Aug 10, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
78¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$10
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 78¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31-INXTR
Event family
KXINXVSGOLD-26DEC31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10
Outcomes
2
Highest price
S&P 500 Total Return Index 76¢
Current share
51%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.