Steve Hilton receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
At least 24% is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will Steve Hilton receive at least 2.
Price history
95¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 24%
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
At least 20% 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-CAGOVR1SHILSHIL-62
Jun 26, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will Steve Hilton receive at least 2
Closes
Jun 5, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 5, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-CAGOVR1SHILSHIL-62
Event family
Will Steve Hilton receive at least 2.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
At least 20% 99¢
Current share
—
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-CAGOVR1SHILSHIL-60
At least 22%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-CAGOVR1SHILSHIL-61
At least 24%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-CAGOVR1SHILSHIL-62
At least 28%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-CAGOVR1SHILSHIL-64
At least 26%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-CAGOVR1SHILSHIL-63
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 95% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.