Student List - Students Win receive at least 34% of valid votes in Serbia's 2026 parliamentary election
At least 34% is priced at 86¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Will Student List - Students Win receive at least.
Price history
86¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the Student List - Students Win share of valid votes in RIK’s first non-preliminary nationwide general report covering all polling stations, rounded to two decimal places is at least 34% in the October 25, 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 34%
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
At least 30% 91¢
Range
8¢-91¢
Family volume
$718
Identifier
KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL34
Sep 23, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$718
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Student List - Students Win receive at least
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
Family volume
$718
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 82¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Student List - Students Win share of valid votes in RIK’s first non-preliminary nationwide general report covering all polling stations, rounded to two decimal places is at least 34% in the October 25, 2026 Serbian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
Identifier
KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL34
Event family
Will Student List - Students Win receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$718
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 30% 91¢
Current share
100%
At least 30%
kalshi · KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL30
At least 34%
kalshi · KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL34
At least 38%
kalshi · KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL38
At least 42%
kalshi · KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL42
At least 46%
kalshi · KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL46
At least 50%
kalshi · KXSRBIASTUDENT-26OCT25-AL50
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.