Terence Crawford · KXESPYS-26BUFCF
Terence Crawford is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside KXESPYS-26BUFCF.
Price history
26¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If Terence Crawford wins Best Fighter at the 2026 ESPYS, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Terence Crawford
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Justin Gaethje 70¢
Range
1¢-70¢
Family volume
$200
Identifier
KXESPYS-26BUFCF-TER
Jul 10, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · KXESPYS-26BUFCF
Closes
Jul 16, 2027
Family volume
$200
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Terence Crawford wins Best Fighter at the 2026 ESPYS, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 16, 2027
Identifier
KXESPYS-26BUFCF-TER
Event family
KXESPYS-26BUFCF.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$200
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Justin Gaethje 70¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 26% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.