Tesla Inc. report Above 465000 total production in Q3 2026
Above 465000 is priced at 79¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 75¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Will Tesla Inc. report Above.
Price history
79¢ current
+29¢Contract brief
If Tesla Inc. reports Above 465000 total production in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 465000
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Above 430000 94¢
Range
3¢-94¢
Family volume
$23
Identifier
KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-465000
Aug 9, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$583
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Tesla Inc. report Above
Closes
Jan 30, 2027
Family volume
$23
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 81¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tesla Inc. reports Above 465000 total production in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 30, 2027
Identifier
KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-465000
Event family
Will Tesla Inc. report Above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$23
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Above 430000 94¢
Current share
0%
Above 430000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-430000
Above 435000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-435000
Above 445000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-445000
Above 440000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-440000
Above 450000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-450000
Above 455000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-455000
Above 460000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-460000
Above 465000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-465000
Above 470000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-470000
Above 475000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-475000
Above 480000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-480000
Above 485000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-485000
Above 490000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-490000
Above 495000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-495000
Above 500000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-500000
Above 505000
kalshi · KXTSLA-26OCTPROD-505000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.