SimpleFunctions

10Y U.S. Treasury yield above 4.56% on Aug 31, 2026

4.57% or above is priced at 73¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 70¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.

Open on KalshiView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

73¢ current

+4¢
25¢50¢75¢
Aug 7, 2026Aug 9, 2026

Contract brief

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.56% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

4.57% or above

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

4.41% or above 94¢

Range

31¢-94¢

Family volume

$237

Identifier

KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.56

Aug 10, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Implied probability

73¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Aug 10, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Bid

70¢

Ask

76¢

Spread

6¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Family volume

$237

Orderbook snapshot

70 / 76¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
70¢100
62¢31
61¢600
58¢101
17¢46
AskSize
76¢25
77¢600
78¢100
90¢52
98¢3.3K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.56% on Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Identifier

KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.56

SF Signal
SF Index
1746.28
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$237

Outcomes

16

Highest price

4.41% or above 94¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

4.41% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.40

94¢
$100$100—

4.43% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.42

85¢
$0$0—

4.45% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.44

85¢
$0$00.1

4.47% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.46

81¢
$0$0—

4.49% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.48

79¢
$0$0—

4.51% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.50

77¢
$0$00.1

4.53% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.52

75¢
$0$0—

4.55% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.54

73¢
$0$0—

4.57% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.56

70¢
$0$00.1

4.59% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.58

67¢
$0$0—

4.61% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.60

63¢
$0$0—

4.63% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.62

60¢
$0$0—

4.65% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.64

54¢
$132$132—

4.67% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.66

53¢
$0$0—

4.69% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.68

50¢
$0$0—

4.81% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AM-26AUG31-T4.80

31¢
$5$5—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

724.3%

IY (No)

3943.3%

Adj IY

1746%

CRI

2

Overround

12.4%

LAS

0.11

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
724.3%
IY (No)
3943.3%
Adj IY
1746%
CRI
2
Overround
12.4%
LAS
0.11

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.