SimpleFunctions

10Y U.S. Treasury yield above 4.57% on Jul 27, 2026

4.58% or above is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 95¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 15 inside Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.

Open on KalshiView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

99¢ current

+33¢
75¢100¢
Jul 24, 2026Jul 26, 2026

Contract brief

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.57% on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

4.58% or above

Rank

#1 of 15

Leader

4.58% or above 95¢

Range

1¢-95¢

Family volume

$810

Identifier

KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.57

Jul 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

99¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

95¢

Ask

100¢

Spread

5¢

Reported volume

$100

Family rank

#1 of 15

15 outcomes · Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4

Closes

Jul 27, 2026

Family volume

$810

Orderbook snapshot

95 / 100¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
95¢100
75¢29
70¢35
69¢172
65¢35
AskSize

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.57% on Jul 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 27, 2026

Identifier

KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.57

SF Signal
SF Index
100000.00
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$810

Outcomes

15

Highest price

4.58% or above 95¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

4.58% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.57

95¢
$0$0—

4.56% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.55

95¢
$0$0—

4.6% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.59

92¢
$0$0—

4.62% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.61

82¢
$100$1000.1

4.64% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.63

78¢
$0$0—

4.66% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.65

71¢
$0$0—

4.68% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.67

61¢
$0$0—

4.7% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.69

55¢
$4$4—

4.72% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.71

38¢
$0$0—

4.74% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.73

27¢
$204$204—

4.76% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.75

13¢
$100$100—

4.78% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.77

10¢
$2$2—

4.8% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.79

2¢
$100$100—

4.82% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.81

1¢
$200$200—

4.84% or above

kalshi · KXUST10AD-26JUL27-T4.83

1¢
$100$100—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

19

VR

2.33

IAR

0.3/h

Overround

6.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

CRI
19
VR
2.33
IAR
0.3/h
Overround
6.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.