10Y U.S. Treasury yield above 4.99% by Jan 1, 2027
5% or above is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above.
Price history
99¢ current
Contract brief
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on any business day between Sep 17, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
5% or above
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
5% or above 99¢
Range
41¢-99¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T4.99
Sep 20, 2026, 4:49 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
99¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
99 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.99% on any business day between Sep 17, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T4.99
Event family
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
5% or above 99¢
Current share
34%
5.01% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.00
5% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T4.99
5.02% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.01
5.03% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.02
5.04% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.03
5.05% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.04
5.06% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.05
5.07% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.06
5.08% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.07
5.09% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.08
5.1% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.09
5.11% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.10
5.16% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.15
5.2% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.19
5.24% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.23
5.25% or above
kalshi · KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.24
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.