12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 above 2.5%
Above 2.5% is priced at 75¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 43¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 31¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 13 inside Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above.
Price history
75¢ current
+63¢Contract brief
If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2027 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 2.5%
Rank
#6 of 13
Leader
Above 0.0% 94¢
Range
2¢-94¢
Family volume
$27
Identifier
KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T2.5
Aug 21, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
43¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
31¢
24h volume
$13
Family rank
#6 of 13
13 outcomes · Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above
Closes
Feb 1, 2028
Family volume
$27
Orderbook snapshot
43 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2027 is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2028
Identifier
KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T2.5
Event family
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2027 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$27
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Above 0.0% 94¢
Current share
49%
Above 0.0%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T0.0
Above 0.5%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T0.5
Above 1.0%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T1.0
Above 1.5%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T1.5
Above 2.0%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T2.0
Above 2.5%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T2.5
Above 3.0%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T3.0
Above 5.0%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T5.0
Above 4.0%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T4.0
Above 6.0%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T6.0
Above 5.5%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T5.5
Above 3.5%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T3.5
Above 4.5%
kalshi · KXUSCPIYEAR-28FEB01-T4.5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.