SimpleFunctions

Senior/Graduate · Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as

Senior/Graduate is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 49¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as.

Price history

49¢ current

+17¢
0¢25¢50¢
Aug 21, 2026Sep 6, 2026

Contract brief

If a player who is designated as a Senior or Graduate student is the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Senior/Graduate

Rank

#1 of 4

Leader

Senior/Graduate 35¢

Range

1¢-35¢

Family volume

$314

Identifier

KXHEISMANSPECIAL-26CLASS-SRGR

Sep 20, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Implied probability

49¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 20, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Bid

35¢

Ask

49¢

Spread

14¢

24h volume

$0

Family rank

#1 of 4

4 outcomes · Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as

Closes

Jan 7, 2027

Family volume

$314

Orderbook snapshot

35 / 49¢

Kalshi
14¢ spread
BidSize
100¢50
35¢5
5¢12
AskSize
49¢200
54¢200
59¢221
64¢200
69¢200

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If a player who is designated as a Senior or Graduate student is the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 7, 2027

Identifier

KXHEISMANSPECIAL-26CLASS-SRGR

SF Signal
SF Index
311.97
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$314

Outcomes

4

Highest price

Senior/Graduate 35¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

623.9%
180.9%
Adj IY
312%
2

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.