Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029
Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029 is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
7¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$227K
Identifier
KXAMEND22-29-JAN01
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Family volume
$227K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2029
Identifier
KXAMEND22-29-JAN01
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$227K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029 7¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.