SimpleFunctions

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029 is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

7¢ current

2¢
5¢10¢15¢
May 4, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$227K

Identifier

KXAMEND22-29-JAN01

May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Implied probability

7¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Bid

Ask

10¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jan 1, 2029

Family volume

$227K

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 10¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
7¢5
7¢136
6¢603
5¢1.9K
5¢4.0K
AskSize
10¢203
12¢1.2K
13¢16K
14¢5.1K
15¢1.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2029

Identifier

KXAMEND22-29-JAN01

SF Signal
SF Index
255.52
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$227K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029 7¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

511.0%
2.9%
Adj IY
256%
13

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.