30Y U.S. Treasury yield above 5.31% by Jan 1, 2027
5.32% or above is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.
Price history
97¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.31% on any business day between Sep 17, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
5.32% or above
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
5.32% or above 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$23K
Identifier
KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.31
Sep 20, 2026, 7:09 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
99¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$23K
Orderbook snapshot
99 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.31% on any business day between Sep 17, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.31
Event family
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$23K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
5.32% or above 99¢
Current share
11%
5.33% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.32
5.3% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.29
5.32% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.31
5.31% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.30
5.34% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.33
5.35% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.34
5.4% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.39
5.39% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.38
5.36% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.35
5.37% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.36
5.41% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.40
5.45% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.44
5.5% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.49
5.53% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.52
5.54% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.53
5.38% or above
kalshi · KX30YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.37
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Yield Curve (Prediction Markets)
A prediction-market yield curve plots implied yield against τ-days across all sibling contracts in an event family. Borrowed from bond desks, enabled by cycle clustering.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 97% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.