SimpleFunctions

Average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 at least $6.70

At least $6.70 is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6.

Price history

27¢ current

+25¢
0¢25¢
Jul 7, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 is at least $6.70, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

At least $6.70

Rank

#6 of 8

Leader

At least $6.65 90¢

Range

8¢-90¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXTBCRUNCHWRAP-26AUG02-T6.70

Jul 12, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

27¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

27¢

Ask

30¢

Spread

24h volume

$22

Family rank

#6 of 8

8 outcomes · Will the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 be at least $6

Closes

Aug 2, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

27 / 30¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
27¢505
7¢5
6¢80
3¢180
AskSize
30¢5
31¢129
34¢500
75¢65
80¢4

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average U.S. price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme for July 2026 is at least $6.70, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 2, 2026

Identifier

KXTBCRUNCHWRAP-26AUG02-T6.70

SF Signal
SF Index
4890.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4890.0%

IY (No)

668.9%

Adj IY

4890%

CRI

3

RV

534%

VR

0.75

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4890.0%
668.9%
Adj IY
4890%
3
RV
534%
VR
0.75
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
2.8%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.