Maintain current rate · Will the Bank of Japan
Maintain current rate is priced at 54¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 53¢ bid, 55¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will the Bank of Japan.
Price history
54¢ current
−28¢Contract brief
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Maintain current rate
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Maintain current rate 54¢
Range
1¢-54¢
Family volume
$599
Identifier
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD
Aug 8, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
53¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$168
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the Bank of Japan
Closes
Sep 18, 2026
Family volume
$599
Orderbook snapshot
53 / 55¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 18, 2026
Identifier
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD
Event family
Will the Bank of Japan.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$599
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Maintain current rate 54¢
Current share
28%
Maintain current rate
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD
Hike 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
Cut 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25
Cut more than 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-C25P
Hike more than 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25P
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 54% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.