Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont: Democratic party · GOVPARTYVT-26
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont: Democratic party is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 17¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside GOVPARTYVT-26.
Price history
24¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Vermont: Democratic party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont: Republican party 75¢
Range
9¢-75¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
GOVPARTYVT-26-D
May 24, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
17¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · GOVPARTYVT-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYVT-26-D
Event family
GOVPARTYVT-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont: Republican party 75¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.