The Disappearing Act · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26
The Disappearing Act is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 11 inside KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26.
Price history
14¢ current
Contract brief
If 'The Disappearing Act' wins the award for Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
The Disappearing Act
Rank
#3 of 11
Leader
Now I Surrender 18¢
Range
1¢-18¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-DISAPP
Sep 23, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 38m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$800
Family rank
#3 of 11
11 outcomes · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26
Closes
Nov 18, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If 'The Disappearing Act' wins the award for Translated Literature at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 18, 2027
Identifier
KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-DISAPP
Event family
KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Now I Surrender 18¢
Current share
73%
Now I Surrender
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-NOWISU
Eden at Dawn
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-EDENAT
The Disappearing Act
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-DISAPP
Your Presence Is a Danger to Your Life: Voices of Survival and Witness in Gaza
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-YOURPR
Pure Men
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-PUREME
My Dreadful Body
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-MYDREA
Night of a Thousand Hells
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-NIGHTO
The School of Night
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-SCHOOL
Centroeuropa
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-CENTRO
To the East of the East
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-TOTHEE
Tie
kalshi · KXNATBOOKAWARDS-TLIT26-TIE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.