Fabiano Caruana · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26
Fabiano Caruana is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
If Fabiano Caruana wins the World Chess Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Fabiano Caruana
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
Javokhir Sindarov 65¢
Range
1¢-65¢
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-FCAR
May 24, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26
Closes
Dec 30, 2028
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Fabiano Caruana wins the World Chess Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 30, 2028
Identifier
KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-FCAR
Event family
KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Javokhir Sindarov 65¢
Current share
18%
Javokhir Sindarov
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-JSIN
Gukesh Dommaraju
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-GDOM
Hikaru Nakamura
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-HNAK
Anish Giri
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-AGIR
Fabiano Caruana
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-FCAR
Andrey Esipenko
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-AESI
Matthias Bluebaum
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-MBLU
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-RPRA
Wei Yi
kalshi · KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-WEYI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
sports
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.