The Gilded Age · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14
The Gilded Age is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
If The Gilded Age has won Outstanding Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
The Gilded Age
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
The Pitt 92¢
Range
1¢-92¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-GIL
Aug 27, 2026, 5:10 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If The Gilded Age has won Outstanding Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Identifier
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-GIL
Event family
KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
The Pitt 92¢
Current share
11%
The Pitt
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-PIT
Pluribus
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-PLU
Your Friends & Neighbors
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-YOU
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-KNI
Slow Horses
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-SLO
The Gilded Age
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-GIL
Paradise
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-PAR
The Diplomat
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-DIP
Tie
kalshi · KXEMMYDSERIES-26SEP14-TIE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
cultural
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
The 1992 Pound Trade Has a $82M Polymarket Twin: Conviction Macro Bets in the Age of On-Chain Liquidity
Soros and Druckenmiller scaled their pound short to $10B in a single September 1992 day. Théo deployed $80M across 11 Polymarket accounts on Trump 2024 and netted ~$82.3M. The mechanic — proprietary signal, conviction sizing, asymmetric payoff — is identical. The instrument is new.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 1% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.