Will the lowest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on August 22
Will the lowest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on August 22 is priced at 46¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 90¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
46¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Outcome
Will the lowest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on August 22
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
0xe76b5e21...76d9
Aug 21, 2026, 1:26 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
90¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 22, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 91¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 22, 2026
Identifier
0xe76b5e21…76d9
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the lowest temperature in Panama City be 21°C or below on August 22 46¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 46% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.