Margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff at least 6%
Mike Mazzei, ≥6% is priced at 46¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least.
Price history
46¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff is at or above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mike Mazzei, ≥6%
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Mike Mazzei, ≥3% 57¢
Range
1¢-57¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOVD-GOVOKNOMR26MMAZ-MMAZ-P6
Aug 25, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 46m ago
Implied probability
Bid
41¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least
Closes
Aug 25, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
41 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff is at or above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 25, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOVD-GOVOKNOMR26MMAZ-MMAZ-P6
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Mike Mazzei, ≥3% 57¢
Current share
66%
Mike Mazzei, ≥3%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOVD-GOVOKNOMR26MMAZ-MMAZ-P3
Mike Mazzei, ≥6%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOVD-GOVOKNOMR26MMAZ-MMAZ-P6
Mike Mazzei, ≥9%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOVD-GOVOKNOMR26MMAZ-MMAZ-P9
Mike Mazzei, ≥12%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOVD-GOVOKNOMR26MMAZ-MMAZ-P12
Mike Mazzei, ≥15%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOVD-GOVOKNOMR26MMAZ-MMAZ-P15
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.