107° to 108° · Will the maximum temperature
107° to 108° is priced at 58¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 58¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will the maximum temperature.
Price history
58¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the maximum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 12, 2026, is between 107-108° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
107° to 108°
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
107° to 108° 58¢
Range
1¢-58¢
Family volume
$21K
Identifier
KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-B107.5
Jul 12, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
58¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the maximum temperature
Closes
Jul 13, 2026
Family volume
$21K
Orderbook snapshot
58 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the maximum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 12, 2026, is between 107-108° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 13, 2026
Identifier
KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-B107.5
Event family
Will the maximum temperature.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$21K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
107° to 108° 58¢
Current share
24%
107° to 108°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-B107.5
109° to 110°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-B109.5
105° to 106°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-B105.5
111° to 112°
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-B111.5
104° or below
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-T105
113° or above
kalshi · KXHIGHTLV-26JUL12-T112
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 58% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.