SimpleFunctions

Monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 above $1.00 in February 2027

Above $1.00 is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

Price history

31¢ current

+29¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 17, 2026Jul 10, 2026

Contract brief

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $1.00

Rank

#4 of 7

Leader

Above $0.50 55¢

Range

2¢-55¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-1.000

Jul 10, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

31¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 10, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

16¢

Ask

17¢

Spread

Reported volume

$1K

Family rank

#4 of 7

7 outcomes · Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $

Closes

Mar 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

16 / 17¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
16¢95
15¢62
12¢2
8¢98
3¢2.0K
AskSize
17¢30
18¢100
99¢1.1K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the average value of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $1 in February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Mar 1, 2027

Identifier

KXRTX5090MS-27FEB-1.000

SF Signal
SF Index
821.20
Regime
taker

Event family

Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Above $0.50 55¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

821.2%

IY (No)

29.8%

Adj IY

821%

CRI

5

RV

39832%

VR

10.69

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

821.2%
29.8%
Adj IY
821%
5
RV
39832%
VR
10.69
IAR
1.2/h
Overround
0.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.