Natural gas close price above 2.935 USD/MMBtu on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT
above $2.935 is priced at 56¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 46¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Will the natural gas close price be above.
Price history
56¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.935 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
above $2.935
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
above $2.885 68¢
Range
2¢-68¢
Family volume
$669
Identifier
KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.935
Jul 11, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$12
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the natural gas close price be above
Closes
Jul 13, 2026
Family volume
$669
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.935 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 13, 2026
Identifier
KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.935
Event family
Will the natural gas close price be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$669
Outcomes
16
Highest price
above $2.885 68¢
Current share
2%
above $2.885
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.885
above $2.895
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.895
above $2.910
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.910
above $2.920
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.920
above $2.935
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.935
above $2.940
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.940
above $2.950
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.950
above $2.960
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.960
above $2.980
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.980
above $2.985
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T2.985
above $3.030
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T3.030
above $3.070
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T3.070
above $3
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T3
above $3.035
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T3.035
above $3.075
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T3.075
above $3.145
kalshi · KXNATGASD-26JUL1317-T3.145
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 56% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.