Natural gas close price above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT
above $2.999 is priced at 84¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside Will the natural gas close price be above.
Price history
84¢ current
+22¢Contract brief
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.999 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
above $2.999
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
above $0.999 99¢
Range
2¢-99¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T2.999
Jun 25, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 57m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$191
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the natural gas close price be above
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDQ6 contract on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 2.999 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T2.999
Event family
Will the natural gas close price be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
above $0.999 99¢
Current share
0%
above $0.999
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T0.999
above $1.099
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T1.099
above $1.199
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T1.199
above $1.299
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T1.299
above $1.399
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T1.399
above $1.499
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T1.499
above $2.999
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T2.999
above $3.199
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T3.199
above $3.299
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T3.299
above $4.499
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T4.499
above $4.699
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T4.699
above $4.099
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T4.099
above $4.199
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T4.199
above $4.299
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T4.299
above $4.399
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T4.399
above $4.599
kalshi · KXNATGASMON-26JUN3017-T4.599
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident
A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 84% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.